Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://10.0.100.92:4000/handle/123456789/21
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Item Real-world asset tokens and commodities: static and dynamic linkages(China Accounting and Finance Review, 2025-08) Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Abdullah, Mohammad; Sarker, Provash Kumer; Abakah, Emmanuel Joel AikinsPurpose – This study explores the static and dynamic interconnectedness between real world asset (RWA) tokens and traditional commodities. Additionally, the study examines the role of uncertainty factors in explaining the interconnectedness. Finally, the study examines portfolio diversification opportunities. Design/methodology/approach – A novel R-squared based time-frequency connectedness approach is used to examine interconnectedness using data from March 14, 2018, to June 9, 2023. To compute optimal portfolio weights and hedging ratios for each pair, the DCC-GARCH model is utilized and the best weights and hedge ratios are estimated. Findings – The static connectedness result shows that RWA tokens and commodities demonstrate a relatively lower level of interconnectedness. The dynamic connectedness measures unveil time-varying interconnectedness, particularly heightened during economic events. Moreover, global uncertainty factors are positively associated with connectedness, emphasizing the multifaceted channels through which shock is transmitted. Portfolio analysis underscores potential diversification opportunities between RWAs and commodities, offering insights for informed decision-making in navigating the evolving landscape of blockchain-based assets and traditional commodities. Originality/value – The main novelty of this manuscript is the exploration of RWA tokens, an emerging asset class that has received limited academic attention compared to cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi. Unlike prior studies, this research employs a novel R-Squared-based time-frequency connectedness approach to analyze the static and dynamic linkages betweenRWA and traditional commodities.It also examines global uncertainty factors and incorporates portfolio backtesting, providing insightsfor investorsseeking diversification in tokenized assets.Item Tracing the ties that bind: navigating the static and dynamic connectedness between NFTs and equity markets in ASEAN based on QVAR-approach(Financial Innovation, 2025-01-10) Naveed, Muhammad; Ali, Shoaib; Tiwari, Aviral KumarBased on market integration theory, we investigate the static and dynamic connectedness between nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) equity markets using the Quantile Vector Auto Regressive model. We also compute optimal weights and hedge ratios for our variable of interest to establish their diversification and hedging potential. Our analysis infers a moderate level of return transmission at the median quantile, where equity markets evolved as the net recipients of return spillover from the system, while NFTs emerge as key transmitters. In extreme market conditions, transmission between variables is amplified, but the increase is symmetrical across extreme quantiles, suggesting a similar impact. However, the interlinkage among assets is symmetric across conditional quantiles. The dynamic analysis demonstrates that the system integration amplifies during uncertain times (e.g., COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict). Our portfolio analysis shows that NFTs provide diversification and hedging in all market conditions. However, the period of turmoil dampened the diversification potential, and hedging became expensive. Our study offers detailed and insightful information about the transmission mechanism and enables the participants of financial markets to diversify and hedge their portfolio.Item Asymmetry in returns and volatility between green financial assets, sustainable investments, clean energy, and international stock markets(Research in International Business and Finance, 2025-01) Doğan, Buhari; Jabeur, Sami Ben; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Abakah, Emmanuel Joel AikinsThis paper presents empirical evidence on the asymmetric relationship between green investments and international stock markets. We employ the asymmetric versions of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018) for time-frequency connectedness, analyzing daily returns and volatilities from June 23, 2009, to June 23, 2022. Our study reveals significant time-frequency asymmetries in returns and volatility spillovers between green investments and developed equity markets in the short and long term. Regarding net directional spillovers, the equity markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, and France emerge as net transmitters of shocks. In contrast, green investments, notably those in sustainability and the environment, act primarily as net emitters of shocks. China and Japan are the primary recipients of these shocks. Meanwhile, green bonds generally function as net receivers of shocks, with occasional exceptions.Item Corporate sustainability practices: An interplay of uncertainty, geopolitical risk and competition(Journal of Environmental Management, 2025-03) Bhue, Rajesh; Gartia, Umakanta; Panda, Ajaya Kumar; Tiwari, Aviral KumarThe present study analyses the interplay between uncertainty and sustainability investment in the line of PMC (product market competition), and its impact on the firms' sustainable practices. Based on a sample of 2533 listed companies from 2011 to 2023, it was observed that uncertainty positively influences sustainable investment, and the PMC plays a moderating role in the case of G-20 countries. Furthermore, the research indicates that sustainable investment promotes long-term investment in G-20 countries during the study period and lessens the unfavorable outcome of uncertainty on a firm's value. We employed SGMM (System-generalized method of moments) to concern about the endogeneity issues and for robustness, which was consistent with the empirical results. The study's implications help investors, managers, and policymakers integrate sustainable investment practices with uncertainty alongside pushing sustainable development goals.Item Dynamics of the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates during quantitative easing and tightening(Financial Innovation, 2025-01-06) Ahmadian-Yazdi, Farzaneh; Sokhanvar, Amin; Roudari, Soheil; Tiwari, Aviral KumarThis study utilizes two complementary models, the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Diebold–Yilmaz (TVP-VAR-DY) and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Baruník–Křehlík (TVP-VAR-BK), to investigate the dynamic volatility transmission between exchange rates and stock returns in major commodity-exporting and -importing countries. The analysis focuses on periods of quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) from March 15, 2020 to December 30, 2022. The countries examined are Canada and Australia (major commodity exporters) and the UK and Germany (major commodity importers). An essential contribution of this paper is new empirical insights into the dynamics of stock market returns and the transmission of volatility between these markets and exchange rates during the QE and QT periods. The results reveal that causality primarily flows from stock markets to exchange rates, especially during the QT period across all investment horizons. The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) emerges as the principal net driver among the markets under study. Furthermore, the Canadian exchange rate (USDCAD) and the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) are the most significantly affected indices within the network across various investment horizons (excluding the long-term). These findings underscore the importance for investors and policymakers to consider the interplay between exchange rates and stock market returns, particularly in the context of the QE and QT periods, as well as other economic, political, and health-related events. Our findings are relevant to various stakeholders, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, and multinationals.Item Crude oil Price forecasting: Leveraging machine learning for global economic stability, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,(Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025-07) Rao, Amar; Sharma, Gagan Deep; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Hossain, Mohammad Razib; Dev, DhairyaThe volatility of the energy market, particularly crude oil, significantly impacts macroeconomic indices, such as inflation, economic growth, currency exchange rates, and trade balances. Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial to risk management and global economic stability. This study examines various models, including GARCH (1,1), Vanilla LSTM, GARCH (1,1) LSTM, and GARCH (1,1) GRU, to predict Brent crude oil prices using different time frequencies and sample periods. The LSTM and GARCH (1,1)-GRU hybrid models showed superior performance, with LSTM slightly better in predictive accuracy and GARCH (1,1)-GRU in minimizing squared errors. These findings emphasize the importance of precise crude oil price forecasting for the global energy market and manufacturing sectors that rely on crude oil prices. Accurate forecasting helps ensure economic sustainability and stability and prevents disruptions to production and distribution chains in both developed and emerging economies. Policymakers may choose to implement energy security measures in response to the significant impact of crude oil price volatility on the macroeconomic indicators. These measures could include maintaining strategic reserves, diversifying energy sources, and decreasing the dependence on volatile oil markets. By doing so, a country's ability to handle oil price fluctuations and ensure a stable energy supply can be enhanced.Item Analyzing the static and dynamic dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets(International Journal of Managerial Finance, 2025-01-17) Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Oliyide, Johnson Ayobami; Appiah, Kingsley OpokuPurpose This paper investigates the static and dynamic directional return spillovers and dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets from January 2013 to September 2020. Design/methodology/approach This study employed both the quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) and time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) technique to examine the magnitude of static and dynamic directional spillovers and dependence of markets. Findings Results show that the magnitude of connectedness is extremely higher at quantile levels (q = 0.05 and q = 0.95) compared to those in the mean of the conditional distribution. This connotes that connectedness between green bonds and other assets increases with shock size for both negative and positive shocks. This further indicates that return shocks spread at a higher magnitude during extreme market conditions relative to normal periods. Additional analyses show the behavior of return transmission between green bond and other assets is asymmetric. Practical implications The findings of this study offer significant implications for portfolio investors, policymakers, regulatory authorities and investment community in terms of carefully assessing the unique characteristics offered by each markets in terms of return spillovers and dependence and diversifying the portfolios. Originality/value The study, first, uses a relatively new statistical technique, the QVAR advanced by Ando et al. (2018), to capture upper and lower tails’ quantile price connectedness and directional spillover. Therefore, the results possess adequate power against departure from mean-based conditional connectedness. Second, using a portfolio of green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets, the uniqueness of this study lies in the examination of the static and dynamic dependence of the markets examined.Item Markov-switching multifractal volatility spillovers among European stock markets during crisis periods(Applied Economics, 2025) Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins; Dwumfour, Richard Adjei; Lee, Chi-ChuanThis research investigates time-varying volatility spillovers and connectedness among European stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia – Ukraine war, two events that destabilized global markets. With data from 20 European stock markets spanning 17 December 2019, to 17 March 2022, we employ the TVP-VAR model and estimate volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal volatility technique. Findings from log-volatility estimates suggest that markets are highly connected, with price movement driven mainly by spillover effects from other markets in the same region. Most emerging markets are net receivers of volatility, with most of Europe’s major markets being net transmitters of shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have impacted European stock markets more than the Russia – Ukraine war. Shifting to the results obtained based on MSM volatility estimates, we find that markets strongly correlate for both high and low volatility. In the case of a high volatility regime, we document the dominance of Finland, Denmark, and Iceland over major European markets. In contrast, under a low volatility regime, we note the dominance of major markets, including the UK and France, over emerging markets in Europe. The findings reveal the diversification potential of emerging European stock markets.Item How does ownership of insiders and institutions affect future value? Influence of country-level governance(International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, 2025-03) Panda, Brahmadev; Puri, Veerma; Tiwari, Aviral KumarThis research explores the ways in which firm-level governance, specifically insider and institutional ownership, affects future value through the lens of agency theory. Then, we evaluate how country-level governance influences the value impact of insiders and institutions. Our analysis employs NIFTY-500 listed companies for 11 years, from 2010 to 2020. Findings suggest that the effect of insider ownership on future value is nonlinear, and the impact of institutional ownership is detrimental for the entire sample. Nonetheless, differential value impacts of insiders and institutions are observed between the insider and noninsider firms. We observe an inverted U-shaped and U-shaped effect of insiders on future value for insider and noninsider firms, respectively. Insider firms witness a declining value impact, while noninsider firms experience an incremental value impact from institutional investors. Further findings indicate that though country-level governance has little bearing on institutional investors, it effectively reduces insiders’ expropriation effect that enhances future value.Item Geopolitical risk and real estate stock crash(Finance Research Letters, 2025-06) Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins; Abdullah, Mohammad; Akinsomi, Omokolade; Tiwari, Aviral KumarWe investigate the effect of geopolitical risk (GPR) on real estate stock crashes while accounting for the impact of cash holdings and financial constraints in this relationship. Using a dataset from 28 countries covering the period of 2000 to 2023 from 1805 firms, we document that geopolitical risk increases real estate stock price crash risk. Our result remains consistent using an alternate proxy of geopolitical risk and even after considering endogeneity concerns using 2SLS and Entropy balanced samples. Our result shows the negative impact of GPR is stronger for firms with high cash holdings and high financial constraints.